Tag:intellectual property-patents,telecommunications media entertainment and technology-technology
On March 24, 2023, Gordon Moore, a legendary figure in the semiconductor industry, passed away at the age of 94. Moore is most renowned for proposing the phenomenal principle in the realm of integrated circuit, famously known as Moore's Law. The demise of Gordon Moore seems to symbolize the grand finale of the era defined by "Moore's Law."
I. The Emergence of the Post-Moore Era
Following the debut of the silicon transistor in 1954, the semiconductor industry embarked on a rapid journey of technological progress. In 1965, Gordon Moore articulated Moore's Law in an article published in the Electronics magazine:
“Every 18 months, the number of transistors within the same area doubles while the cost remains constant.”
Over an extended period, the iteration of advanced processing in semiconductor has consistently adhered to the Moore's Law. Nevertheless, starting in 2015, due to limitations of short-channel effects and quantum tunneling effects, Moore's Law has progressively lost its relevance. The production timelines for chips utilizing 7nm and 5nm processes have fallen behind initial projections. With the chip process technology approaching the physical limit of 1nm, we are witnessing the formal transition of the integrated circuit industry into the post-Moore era.
To extend Moore's Law, the technological roadmap in the post-Moore era primarily evolves along three distinct dimensions referred to as “More Moore”, “More than Moore”, and “Beyond CMOS”. “More Moore” refers to the continuous shrinking of physical feature sizes of the digital functionalities (logic and memory storage) in order to improve density (cost per function reduction) and performance (speed, power). “More than Moore” refers to the incorporation into devices of functionalities that do not necessarily scale according to Moore's Law, but provide additional value in different ways. The “More than Moore” approach allows for the non-digital functionalities (e.g., RF communication, power control, passive components, sensors, actuators) to migrate from the system board-level into the package or onto the chip.[1] “Beyond CMOS” refers to an in-depth look at devices that were not based on variation of MOS devices (i.e., look beyond electronic conduction) such as spintronics or magnetics. These three dimensions collectively drive the ongoing progress of semiconductor technology in the post-Moore era.
In the context mentioned above, advanced packaging takes center stage as a prominent aspect of the "More than Moore", proving to be one of the most effective technological strategies for extending Moore's Law. Advanced packaging is a concept that has evolved in response to advanced processing. Currently, the global semiconductor packaging industry can be divided into five developmental stages, with packaging technologies arising since the third phase collectively referred to as advanced packaging.[2]
The first and second initial phase of the packaging industry is known as Through-Hole Technology (THT) and Surface Mount Technology (SMT) respectively, while the advanced packaging process from the third phase is characterized by Wafer-Level Packaging (WLP), Chip Scale Package (CSP), Heterogeneous Integration, 3D Stacking and other new packaging technologies.
The substantial benefits of advanced packaging technologies in enhancing chip performance have garnered sustained investments and strategic efforts from leading IC packaging and testing firms globally. In June 2023, the launch of the M2 Ultra chip, designed for use in Mac Studio and Mac Pro, serves as a prime example. This chip employs the UltraFusion 3D packaging architecture to interconnect two M2 Max chips, resulting in the highest-performing SoC chip within the M2 series.
“Amid the deceleration of Moore's Law, opportunities arise for those striving to catch up.”
Wu Hanming, Academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering[3]
As one of the earliest and fastest-developing sectors in Chinese[4] semiconductor industry, semiconductor packaging has garnered considerable attention and is seen as a pivotal mean for overcoming barriers in the semiconductor industry. In 2021, during the 18th meeting of the Leading Group for Reform of China's National Science and Technology System and Build of the Innovative System in Beijing, there was a dedicated discussion on potentially disruptive integrated circuit technologies for the post-Moore era.
In order to elucidate effectively the developmental history of the advanced packaging and the current development status of Chinese indigenous enterprises, this article employs a combination of statistical analysis of patent data and market information interpretation to dissect the evolution of advanced packaging.
II. Global Overview of Patents in Advanced Packaging
Figure 1 presents an overview, based on INPADOC families, of patent application trends and patent authorization status in the field of advanced packaging technology within the industry over the past 15 years. Notably, due to the lag between filing and publication, the figures for recent three years have not been fully included in the complete dataset. The graph illustrates a prevailing upward trajectory in the number of patent applications in the field, coupled with a relatively steady grant rate hovering at approximately 70%. This phenomenon serves as characteristic for positive innovation momentum, with industry players consistently maintaining their R&D (research and development) capabilities and fostering a continuous stream of novel technologies within the industry.
Figure 1. Global patent applications and grants in advanced packaging (2009-2023)
Figure 2 illustrates a comparison of patent application trends related to advanced packaging for the top 5 applicants from five jurisdictions: the United States, China, Japan, South Korea, and Chinese Taiwan, over a span of nearly two decades. The data reveals that, prior to 2010, enterprises from the US, Japan, and Chinese Taiwan demonstrated almost equivalent patenting capabilities in advanced packaging. Korean companies, on the other hand, held a leading position in this domain compared to their counterparts.
Figure 2. Patent application trends of top enterprises in five jurisdictions
However, it is worth noting that the competitive landscape in technology and innovation changed over time due to various factors such as investments, government policies, and market dynamics. Since 2010, the enterprises both in the US and Chinese Taiwan had maintained the approximate consistent upward trends in patent application volumes. By contrast, Korean companies appeared to gradually shift their R&D focus away from advanced packaging, resulting in a gradual decline in application numbers. However, in 2018, they recommenced their R&D efforts, leading to a substantial increase in patent applications, ultimately reclaiming a top-tier global position by 2021. Most markedly, Japanese enterprises, once the global leaders two decades ago, had a pronounced decline in patent application volumes over the past 20 years. In recent years, their patent application volumes have diminished to nearly zero, showing negligible innovation in advanced packaging.
Compared to the aforementioned jurisdictions, the development of advanced packaging technology in China commenced relatively later. It is not until 2010 that there was a noticeable increase in patent applications. While the quantity of filings has not yet reached the levels seen in the US, South Korea, or Chinese Taiwan, the trend indicates that Chinese enterprises may be on the cusp of transitioning from an accumulation phase to a period of steady growth in technological innovation.
Figure 3 illustrates the global distribution of patents held by the above mentioned companies, with a focus on the patent having family members in two or more jurisdictions in terms of INPADOC. It showed that despite Japan's gradual decline in this technological field, the Japanese applicants have been consistently prioritizing their global patent strategy, maintaining an international patent portfolio proportion of over 70%. In addition, the US, though witnessing a partial reduction in the proportion of international patent portfolio in 2018 possibly due to the US sanctions against China, have quickly resumed expanding their international patent portfolios. On the other hand, Chinese enterprises, initially having fewer patents, experienced significant fluctuations. As the number of patents increased after 2010, the proportion also gradually grew, though the overall percentage remains relatively low.
Figure 3. The international patent portfolio proportions of top enterprises in five jurisdictions
In Figure 4, this article utilizes the top 50 enterprises holding patents within China as sample pool to illustrate the assignee distribution. It is evident that companies from major jurisdictions in the field have placed significant emphasis on the Chinese market and have accumulated substantial patent portfolios. Enterprises from Chinese Taiwan have the biggest cut of overall patent portfolio in China, accounting for 34%. By contrast, Chinese indigenous enterprises have a share of 23%, possessing a weak advantage of the US (16%) or South Korea (15%). This underscores the need for increasing R&D efforts and investments by Chinese indigenous enterprises in this technology sector. Based on the current patent data, achieving a strong competitive position in the market remains a challenge for Chinese indigenous companies.
Figure 4. The patent portfolio proportions of top50 enterprises in China
The patent data presented above clearly indicates the increasing focus on R&D in advanced packaging technology across various enterprises. One of the primary reasons for this heightened interest is the rapidly expanding market with tremendous potential. According to Yole data, the global advanced packaging market reached $44.3 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach $78.6 billion by 2028.[5] The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the global advanced packaging market during the period from 2022 to 2028 is estimated to be 10.6%. By 2028, advanced packaging is expected to account for over 90% of the total IC packaging market. Likewise, advanced packaging market in China is poised for rapid expansion, which is expected to reach ¥113.7 billion by 2025.[6] However, the market share of advanced packaging in China is expected to be 32.0%, significantly lower than the figure of 48% in the global market. This suggests substantial business opportunity in the Chinese advanced packaging market.
Entering the post-Moore's Law era, the global semiconductor industry is experiencing a period of adjustment, characterized by a simultaneous blend of risks and opportunities. In a time when the development of hardware through advanced processing faces challenges, advanced packaging has become a big deal in the semiconductor world. For Chinese indigenous enterprises, especially facing restrictions and slow progress in advanced processing, advanced packaging offers a fresh perspective for domestic alternatives. It has the potential to enhance Chinese overall competitiveness, and even emerge as a pivotal breakthrough or the game-changer for the IC industry. Admittedly, based on above patent data, there is still a gap between Chinese indigenous enterprises and international leaders in advanced packaging R&D due to historical factors. Driven by local and global demand, the Chinese packaging industry should be encouraged to develop advanced packaging technology to the international top-tier level in order to achieve “curve overtaking” in the semiconductor industry.
On 29th of August, Chinese domestically developed 5G smartphone chips were launched. The complete domestic design and manufacture of these chips unquestionably represents a new milestone in Chinese chip landscape. The demand for advanced packaging that accompanies these developments will play a crucial role in bolstering Chinese entire advanced packaging industry chain. Against this technological backdrop, the industrial of Chinese advanced packaging is undoubtedly on the cusp of value reconfiguring and industrial upgrading.
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“International Roadmap for Devices and Systems: MORE THAN MOORE WHIRE PAPER”, IRDS, 2022 Edition
“The development of semiconductor packaging industry in China”
"Advanced Integrated Circuit Technology and Industrial Innovation" forum, April 24, 2021
In this article, "China, Chinese or Indigenous" refers to Chinese mainland excluding Hong Kong SAR, Macau SAR and Taiwan Province.
Data source: Yole Intelligence.
Data source: Frost & Sullivan.
